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Although superficially the required accounting figures
do not appear to provide any direct insight as to the ability of the Plan
to provide future benefits, because we rigorously follow Generally Accepted
Actuarial Principles (GAAP) in our OPEB (Other Postemployment Benefits) calculations, the sophisticated
actuarial model used in the calculations can produce a number of extremely
useful cash flow projections and sensitivity studies for plan decision
makers as a natural extension of the original calculations. Sensitivity
studies show the net effects on future cash flow requirements resulting
from incremental changes in plan design and/or actuarial assumptions. Here
are some examples:
- Short term (e.g. over the term of the collective bargaining agreement)
and medium term (8-10 years) cash flow illustrations - projections can
be an indicator of the sufficiency of current and future employer contribution
rates to fund benefits over these horizons.
- Early Retirement Sensitivity - if liberalizing the pension plan's
early retirement provisions is under consideration, this study can show
the effect on the retiree medical plan's cash flow requirements before
and after such a change.
- Inflation Sensitivity - analyses illustrate the effect of a 1% change
in the medical inflation rate assumption on the Plan's cash flow requirements.
- Sensitivity to Cost-Sharing - retiree cost-sharing can lead to a
leveraging of employer costs if the retiree portion does not keep pace
with medical claims inflation. The actuarial model can show decision
makers how to limit the employer-retiree cost disparity over time under
various inflation assumptions.
- Sensitivity to Medicare Changes - the
impact of future government changes in the Medicare program which can have a significant effect on cash flow for retirees age 65 and older can also
be analyzed.
If the actuarial model for the OPEB calculations is constructed with these
additional types of studies in mind, they can be performed for very little
additional cost. They provide decision makers with practical tools
to evaluate the operation of the retiree medical plan that may not have
been previously available. |